Shutdown ahead: thoughts
Dec. 29th, 2018 12:58 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
markschuldenfreiTrump's deal-making is legendary for its intransigence - the taking of unreasonable positions and the refusal to budge, the use of lawyers and overwhelming force to encourage people to believe that he won't budge.
The most recent temporary spending bill was all of that - a reasonable compromise from the Senate, heading to the House for confirmation, and a sudden overwhelming antipathy from Trump demanding a 5 billion dollar segment of Wall. The Republican House crumbled.
Come the new year, the new Congress is seated. The newly Democratic House is (I suspect) likely to pass the same bill the previous Senate approved, and send that to the new Senate. Which will have the unenviable choice of being MORE Republican than the previous.
What will that Senate do? Will it suddenly NOT pass the bill it passed last year? Will it try to change that bill (and fail to get cloture, which it will try to blame on Democrats in both the House and Senate)? Will it pass it and dare the President to sign?
If the President doesn't sign, what then?
My premise started by saying that the President has a lifetime history of unreasonable intransigence. What then, indeed?
The most recent temporary spending bill was all of that - a reasonable compromise from the Senate, heading to the House for confirmation, and a sudden overwhelming antipathy from Trump demanding a 5 billion dollar segment of Wall. The Republican House crumbled.
Come the new year, the new Congress is seated. The newly Democratic House is (I suspect) likely to pass the same bill the previous Senate approved, and send that to the new Senate. Which will have the unenviable choice of being MORE Republican than the previous.
What will that Senate do? Will it suddenly NOT pass the bill it passed last year? Will it try to change that bill (and fail to get cloture, which it will try to blame on Democrats in both the House and Senate)? Will it pass it and dare the President to sign?
If the President doesn't sign, what then?
My premise started by saying that the President has a lifetime history of unreasonable intransigence. What then, indeed?
no subject
Date: 2018-12-30 12:51 am (UTC)1. Republicans have better spin doctors / their base believes them. "We're requiring the same very reasonable things that our President is asking for, the shutdown is all the fault of those Democrats." Shutdown continues until Ds make concessions.
2. Democrats exhibit more cohesion than they have of late. "We won't be help hostage by a toddler with a tantrum in the White House." Shutdown continues until Rs make concessions.
3. Trump gets distracted by the moon and absent-mindedly signs the bill. The next day he sees Fox News congratulating him for his strong leadership and he starts tweeting out self-congratulations.
I dunno which, I see all of these are plausible.
no subject
Date: 2018-12-30 03:17 pm (UTC)